February 23rd, 2008 Rapscallion Report Archive

Saturday, February 23, 2008

The Pirate's Economic "Field Report"...

Dear Fellow Trading Rapscallion,

I’d rather chew on rusty nails than try to “nail” profits in the stock market going on out there.

Bottom line is it’s brutal –as you’re probably well aware.

As I bark out some orders around here I almost laughed at the thought that we’re about 5 weeks away from some of the bigger earnings announcements… like Google, Apple, and the rest of “earnings season”…

Normally – this is a period of time where I’m licking my chops and almost counting how much money’ll be rolling in.

That’s when I laughed and chuckled a bit… I mean, buying any kind of bullish call options or stock positions right now is a bigger joke than my attempt at singing or dancing.

But...“It is what it is”.

The fact is – I think we’re going to have to see one of those heart-stopping market drops…what is commonly referred to as “capitulation” before any kind of light shines at the end of the tunnel (the kind of light that’s not a TRAIN, that is).

I’m talking about those one day doozies…where literally the “sky falls.”

Then I think “do the last 3 trading days count? …hell, the Dow’s down a heart-stopping 500 points in just the past 3 sessions!”

Lately the put trades have really rung the register. And until very recently, the energy/agriculture names have been far more than just a rare safe-haven – but have been profit centers, too.

But after today, these stocks might have cracked and started fresh downtrends.

Join the club I guess…

If it makes any difference, my trip to the Daytona 500 was FUULLLLLLLL – literally crammed to the gills. Every one of the seats were taken, and it was borderline magical -- truly a one-of-a-kind experience.

We sat in turn one, 7 rows up.

We remember seeing signs all the way into Daytona saying “I need tickets” – and even more throngs of signs right outside the raceway gates.

I know Budweiser had a great day, and so did Nascar’s merchandising sales! But something tells me that’s probably not the most ideal event to mentally file an economic “field report” gauging the economy!

Something tells me that even if it most Nascar fans had only two nickels left to rub together…they’d pitch them Nascar’s way!

Anyway, I think some of this “mailaise” we’re waist-deep in is due to a majority of people now thinking we’re in a funk. But the truth is -- job layoffs and losses in a “real” recession are far, far worse than what we’re seeing. And that’s a key thing… the more people are working – the more they can pay for things like mortgages, cars and other ‘life’ things.

But it doesn’t matter what any of us think… if the perception that it’s bad is there – then it’s pretty much a reality.

Well as the sun sets out my window right now, I wish I could toss some inspiration your way…you know…maybe find at least a few words to lace together that would find you well/make you feel better.

But the fact is…I don’t! I don’t have a damn idea for you this time!

Well, maybe I do…keep your powder dry, the rum flask full and some wind in your sails...

This too, shall pass...

I’ll see you in the next Rapscallion Report –

--Pirate

The Pirate's Economic "Field Report"...

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